GoldFunding.io | Post Week Market Review [16/11/2025]

Gold closed the week with a sharp change in direction. XAUUSD began with strong bullish momentum, broke higher, and then reversed after meeting resistance. The later sell-off created a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, leaving traders with a bearish short-term view but no confirmed bias for the week ahead.

Key takeaways

• Gold was bullish through the early and middle part of the week before reaching resistance around 4,145–4,245.
• The move lower became more convincing after price broke below 4,145 and formed new lower highs and lower lows.
• Economic news helped drive the sharp bearish move; this was not simply ordinary technical price action.
• Volume fell into Friday’s close, so the final move should be treated carefully.
• The next major decision point is whether price can reclaim 4,145 or continues to trade below it.
• Monday’s opening price action will be important before forming a firm weekly bias.

Gold’s bullish move changed direction

The week opened with clear bullish momentum. Price moved higher and eventually reached the 4,145 area, where it tested resistance several times. It then broke higher during the New York session on Wednesday and continued towards approximately 4,245.

At first, the pullback looked like a standard break-and-retest pattern. Price returned to the previous resistance area, which could have become support, and there was an expectation that the market might clear the recent high.

However, the wider structure provided a warning. Before the reversal, gold had been printing higher highs and higher lows. Once price created a lower low, the bullish structure was no longer clean. That meant the retest could not be treated as a reliable signal for immediate continuation.

This is a useful lesson for traders: a single retest is not enough. The surrounding market structure still matters.

The bearish structure takes control

After price failed to hold the bullish structure, gold dropped sharply. The move took price through the 4,145 level and down towards the latest low. Economic news added force to the move, as major political or economic developments can create price swings that are much larger than normal technical movements.

Following the sell-off, price pushed higher but formed a lower high near previous support. That old support then acted as resistance. From a technical perspective, this created another break-and-retest setup, but this time in the direction of the bearish trend.

The current short-term structure can be summarised as follows:

The basic expectation is therefore for price to continue lower unless the structure changes.

Volume profile highlights important zones

A fixed-range volume profile across the bearish move points to three areas worth watching: the value area high, the point of control and the value area low.

The point of control formed around the area where price spent time consolidating before the sharp drop. This suggests that a large amount of trading activity took place there. When price later returned to that zone, it stalled and met resistance.

The value area low also became important. Price tested it first as support and later as resistance. These reactions do not guarantee a specific outcome, but they help identify areas where buyers and sellers have previously shown interest.

Rather than filling the chart with multiple profile bars, traders can mark the main zones and observe how price behaves when it returns to them. A strong rejection, a clean break or a confirmed retest will generally provide more information than the level alone.

What could happen next?

There are several possible paths for XAUUSD as the new week begins.

1. Bearish continuation: Price could move below the recent lows, sweep resting liquidity and search for support at a lower level, potentially around 4,020.
2. Recovery from the lows: After taking liquidity below the recent low, price could reverse higher and retest the 4,145 area.
3. Bullish reclaim: If price breaks back above 4,145 with a confirmed change in structure, the bearish view would weaken and a move higher could develop.
4. Continued resistance: If 4,145 holds as resistance, sellers may attempt to push price lower again.

The daily chart provides some balance to the more dramatic lower-timeframe picture. The sell-off looks aggressive on short time frames, but on the daily chart it is still part of a broader sequence of consolidation and structural breaks. A bullish engulfing move on Monday could recover much of the recent decline, although that scenario needs to be confirmed by price action.

Why Monday’s price action matters

The most responsible approach is to avoid forcing a prediction before the market provides more information. Friday’s low volume makes the closing move less reliable, and the opening conditions could change the short-term picture quickly.

For now, the simple trading framework is:

• Below the key resistance zones, watch for bearish continuation.
• Above 4,145 with a confirmed structure break, reassess the bearish view.
• If price sweeps the lows and rejects them, look for evidence of a recovery rather than assuming one.
• Keep economic news in mind, particularly when trading gold around major releases.

This is also where risk rules matter. Traders using a GoldFunding evaluation should plan around the 12% maximum loss, 5% daily loss limit and 40% best-day rule. A volatile gold session can affect an account quickly, so position size and stop placement should be decided before entering a trade. The MatchTrader platform can be used to manage execution and monitor risk, while the Classic and Rapid evaluations offer different routes depending on a trader’s preferred structure.

The market currently leans bearish on the short-term chart, but there is no need to invent certainty. Let Monday develop, review the new structure and then establish a clearer weekly plan. Traders considering an evaluation can review the available options at /checkout, while the FAQ and /support pages explain the rules and platform details.