GoldFunding.io | Post Week Market Review [16/11/2025]
Gold closed the week with a sharp change in direction. XAUUSD began with bullish momentum, broke higher, and then reversed after testing key resistance. The later sell-off created lower highs and lower lows, leaving traders with a bearish short-term picture but no confirmed bias for the week ahead.
Key takeaways
- Gold was bullish early in the week before rejecting the 4,145–4,245 area.
- The market then broke structure and formed a clear bearish sequence.
- Lower lows and lower highs suggest bearish continuation is possible.
- Volume dropped into Friday’s close, so the next move needs confirmation.
- The 4,145 area is now a key level to watch as possible support or resistance.
- Monday’s price action should help establish the next reliable market bias.
Gold’s bullish move and early resistance
XAUUSD opened the week with steady bullish momentum. Price continued creating higher highs and higher lows, eventually reaching the area around 4,145. This zone was tested several times as resistance before price finally broke higher during the New York session on Wednesday.
The move continued towards approximately 4,245. At that point, however, buyers struggled to maintain control. Price pulled back towards the previous resistance zone, which briefly looked like a normal break-and-retest setup.
That setup could have supported another move higher, but the wider structure told a different story.
Why the break-and-retest idea failed
A break and retest should not be judged by one level alone. Traders also need to consider the sequence of price action around it.
Before the reversal, gold had been making higher highs and higher lows. The next move created a lower low, which weakened the bullish structure. Price then broke below the 4,145 area, with wider economic news helping to accelerate the move.
Large gold movements rarely happen without a wider market driver. Economic and political developments can quickly increase volatility, especially around heavily watched technical levels.
The result was a sharp drop, followed by a weaker recovery. Price formed another lower low and then a lower high after testing previous support as resistance. That is a more complete bearish break-and-retest pattern, and it suggests that sellers may remain active.
The key volume profile areas
A fixed-range volume profile across the bearish move highlights three important areas:
| Area | What it shows | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Value area high | The upper edge of the main traded range | A possible resistance zone during a recovery |
| Point of control | The area with the most trading activity | A level where price may stall or react |
| Value area low | The lower edge of the traded range | A potential support or resistance area |
The point of control formed around an area where price had consolidated. After the sharp fall, gold later returned to test that zone as resistance. This suggests that orders had built up there, and traders were paying close attention to the level.
The market may also have swept liquidity below earlier lows. Long positions placed around the consolidation area could have been stopped out during the drop, while sellers benefited from the momentum that followed.
The lesson is simple: do not treat volume profile levels as automatic trade signals. They are areas to monitor. Price still needs to confirm whether a level is holding or failing.
The 4,145 level and the next possible move
The 4,145 area could become a major reference point in the next few sessions. It may not yet carry the same weight as the previously watched 3,663 level, which acted as a long-term dividing line between bullish and bearish conditions. However, it has now been tested enough to deserve attention.
Two scenarios are especially important:
- Bullish recovery: Price breaks above 4,145 with confirmed structure and holds the level as support. This could open the way for a move higher.
- Bearish rejection: Price returns to 4,145, fails to break through, and forms another lower-time-frame rejection. That would support the idea of continued downside.
Before either scenario develops, gold could sweep the lows below the recent bearish move. A possible support reaction may appear around the 4,020 area, although traders should wait for price action rather than assume that level will hold.
Why Monday’s price action matters
Friday’s volume dropped as the market approached the weekly close. Gold remained bearish, but reduced volume makes it harder to judge whether the move has real continuation behind it.
The lower time frames make the sell-off look aggressive. On the daily chart, it appears less extreme. Gold has spent recent weeks consolidating, breaking structure, and then consolidating again. That leaves room for a Monday bullish engulfing move that could retrace much of the drop towards the 4,200–4,218 area.
For that reason, forcing a strong weekly bias would not be useful. The practical approach is to:
- Wait for the market to open and allow Monday’s range to develop.
- Watch how price reacts around 4,145 and the volume profile zones.
- Look for confirmation before assuming continuation or reversal.
- Reassess the wider structure at the end of the day.
Managing this analysis in a prop evaluation
Market direction is only one part of the job. Traders using MatchTrader for a GoldFunding Classic or Rapid evaluation also need to control the size of any position taken during volatile moves.
Gold can move quickly around news, and a correct market idea can still become a losing trade if the risk is too large. Keep the firm’s 12% maximum loss, 5% daily loss, and 40% best-day rule in mind when planning entries, stops, and targets.
If you are considering an evaluation, review the terms through the checkout page, check common questions in the FAQ, and use support if anything about the rules or platform is unclear.
For now, the cleanest short-term read is bearish because lower lows and lower highs are in place. But Monday needs to confirm that view. If price reclaims the key levels with strong structure, the analysis should be updated rather than defended.