Gold’s volatility puts bank trading profits on course for a record

Banks worldwide are on track to earn about $5 billion from precious-metals trading in 2026, a record in data compiled by Crisil Coalition Greenwich. Strong investor demand and sharp price swings have boosted dealers’ opportunities, with JPMorgan leading reported earnings and other banks expanding their presence in bullion markets.

Key takeaways

  • Global bank revenue from precious-metals trading is forecast to reach approximately $5 billion this year.
  • JPMorgan earned about $700 million from trading and handling precious metals in the first half; Deutsche Bank’s desk made more than $200 million.
  • Volatility and price differences between trading hubs created opportunities, but also increase the risk of losses.

A record year for precious-metals desks

JPMorgan Chase, the market’s leading player, earned roughly $700 million from gold, silver and other precious metals in the first half of 2026, according to people familiar with its results. Its strongest full-year performance to date was in 2020, when it made just over $1 billion from the business.

Other major banks have also generated hundreds of millions of dollars, bringing more competition to a market long dominated by JPMorgan. Deutsche Bank, which has made a prominent return to bullion trading, brought in more than $200 million so far this year, one person familiar with its performance said.

What drove the gains

Investor interest and price volatility have helped trading desks profit from market swings and temporary price gaps. Speculative buying pushed gold and silver to record levels earlier in the year, while short-dated options and leveraged exchange-traded funds attracted investors seeking greater exposure to price moves. Banks also benefited from moving bullion between global hubs when prices diverged.

January was particularly strong for trading desks as buyers piled into both metals. Prices have since eased amid the Middle East conflict, higher energy costs and renewed expectations of monetary tightening, although spot gold and silver remain more than twice their levels at the start of 2024.

Banks seek a bigger role in London bullion

Several banks are pursuing vaulting and clearing services that support the London bullion market, the world’s largest bullion-trading centre. Citigroup became the first new entrant in a decade earlier this year, joining JPMorgan, UBS, HSBC and ICBC Standard Bank. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley are also seeking to enter, according to people familiar with the matter.

The expansion reflects the potential value of infrastructure as well as trading itself. Coalition’s head of fixed income, currencies and commodities said elevated volatility and strong participation in both gold and silver had supported the rise in revenues.

Volatility cuts both ways

A record revenue forecast does not mean trading is reliably profitable: abrupt price moves and dislocations can magnify losses when a position goes the wrong way. Traders at an industry gathering in Italy described the year as strong but cautioned against complacency.

For individual traders, bank earnings are not a guide to expected results. They are a reminder to define exposure and loss limits before trading volatile markets. Traders using MatchTrader for Classic or Rapid evaluations should check the applicable 12% maximum-loss, 5% daily-loss and 40% best-day rules; details are available in the FAQ, with further help through support.